How we measure.

Every case on this site follows the same rules, so you can check us. Here they are, plainly.

The clock starts at the post

Each case starts from one news post: a reporter, a club, an official account. The clock starts the minute it was posted, read from the post itself, so the chart and the post always show the same time. That holds for the cases we caught live and for the ones we found afterwards, marked Recreated from the tape.

Entry: what real buyers paid

The entry price is not a theoretical number. It comes from the market's public trade tape: what real buyers actually paid for that side in the minutes right after the news. If nobody could buy right after the news, there is no case.

Exit: where the price settled

The exit is where the price stopped moving, read from the same tape. We don't pick the best tick of the day. If a price runs up and comes back before it settles, the case shows the lower number.

After fees

Every result is shown after the market's own trading fees, entering and exiting. We show results in percent, never in money: a percent works the same at any size.

What these numbers are, and aren't

• They are documented market moves, rebuilt from public data.
• They are not our personal trading results, and not a promise of future ones.
• They are not advice. Prediction markets carry risk; you can lose what you put in.
• We publish every case that passes these rules, small ones included.

Affiliate disclosure

The Polymarket.com links on this site carry our referral code (via=stm). If you sign up through them, Polymarket may reward us. It costs you nothing and doesn't change what we show. Our Polymarket US and Kalshi links are plain links with no referral. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket or Kalshi.